From fac4bee1b2f92f9283d63c17ed69be325f839690 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Jason Altekruse <jaltekruse@contractor.usgs.gov>
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 2021 12:20:50 -0700
Subject: [PATCH] added uncertainty calcs and fixed median - validated at input
for global interface and slab against official python code
---
.../earthquake/nshmp/gmm/ParkerEtAl_2020.java | 335 ++++++++++++++++--
.../usgs/earthquake/nshmp/gmm/PSHAB20.java | 3 +-
src/test/resources/gmm/PSHAB20_results.csv | 69 ++--
3 files changed, 354 insertions(+), 53 deletions(-)
diff --git a/src/main/java/gov/usgs/earthquake/nshmp/gmm/ParkerEtAl_2020.java b/src/main/java/gov/usgs/earthquake/nshmp/gmm/ParkerEtAl_2020.java
index f328e240..d715e776 100644
--- a/src/main/java/gov/usgs/earthquake/nshmp/gmm/ParkerEtAl_2020.java
+++ b/src/main/java/gov/usgs/earthquake/nshmp/gmm/ParkerEtAl_2020.java
@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import static gov.usgs.earthquake.nshmp.gmm.Imt.PGA;
import static java.lang.Math.exp;
import static java.lang.Math.log;
import static java.lang.Math.log10;
+import static java.lang.Math.max;
import static java.lang.Math.min;
import static java.lang.Math.pow;
import static java.lang.Math.sqrt;
@@ -34,6 +35,9 @@ import gov.usgs.earthquake.nshmp.gmm.GmmInput.Constraints;
* plane, zHypBar, in Eq. 4.6 without modification to coefficients or
* uncertainty.
*
+ * Path term (Eqs. 4.2 and 4.3 in PEER report) appears to differ in the official
+ * Python implementation. Compare implementations of getPathTerm() below
+ *
* <p><b>Reference:</b> Parker, G.A, Stewart, J.P., Boore, D.M., Atkinson, G.M.,
* Hassani, B. (2020) NGA-Subduction global ground-motion models with regional
* adjustment factors. Report no. 2020/03. Berkeley, CA: PEER, 131 p.
@@ -105,6 +109,19 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
private static final double DB1 = 20.0; // km
private static final double DB2 = 67.0; // km
+ /* Ï• parameters */
+ private static final double R1 = 200; // km
+ private static final double R2 = 500; // km
+ private static final double V1 = 200; // m/s
+ private static final double V2 = 500; // m/s
+ /* Ï•S2S and Ï•SS parameters */
+ private static final double R3 = 200; // km
+ private static final double R4 = 500; // km
+ private static final double R5 = 500; // km
+ private static final double R6 = 800; // km
+ private static final double V3 = 200; // m/s
+ private static final double V4 = 800; // m/s
+
private static final class Coefficients {
final Imt imt;
final double c0; // model constant
@@ -117,7 +134,7 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
final double c_e1, c_e2, c_e3, del_None, del_Seattle; // Cascadia basin
final double Ï„, Ï•21, Ï•22, Ï•2v, vm, Ï•2s2s0, a1, Ï•2ss1, Ï•2ss2, a2; // alleatory
// uncertainty
- final double ðœŽEp1, ðœŽEp2, t1, t2;
+ final double σε1, σε2, t1, t2;
Coefficients(Imt imt, CoefficientContainer cc, boolean isSlab, String region) {
this.imt = imt;
@@ -168,11 +185,11 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
Ï•2ss1 = coeffs.get("phi2SS1");
Ï•2ss2 = coeffs.get("phi2SS2");
a2 = coeffs.get("a2");
- // epistemic model
- ðœŽEp1 = 0.4; // GLOBAL INTERFACE
- ðœŽEp2 = 0.4; // GLOBAL INTERFACE
- t1 = 0.2; // GLOBAL INTERFACE
- t2 = 0.2; // GLOBAL INTERFACE
+ // epistemic model (period-independent)
+ σε1 = getσε1(region, isSlab);
+ σε2 = getσε2(region, isSlab);
+ t1 = getT1(region, isSlab);
+ t2 = getT2(region, isSlab);
}
private static final String getA0Col(boolean isSlab, String region) {
@@ -187,6 +204,79 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
return a0Col;
}
+ /* Table E4 */
+ private static final double getσε1(String region, boolean isSlab) {
+ // return region.equals(Region.ALASKA) ? 0.15 :
+ // region.equals(Region.ALEUTIANS) ? 0.15 :
+ // region.equals(Region.CASCADIA) ? 0.43 : 0.4; // else GLOBAL
+ switch (region) {
+ case Region.GLOBAL:
+ return isSlab ? 0.35 : 0.4;
+ case Region.ALASKA:
+ return isSlab ? 0.15 : .15;
+ case Region.ALEUTIANS:
+ return isSlab ? 0.25 : .15;
+ case Region.CASCADIA:
+ return isSlab ? 0.35 : 0.43;
+ default:
+ throw new IllegalArgumentException("Region [" + region + "] not supported");
+ }
+ }
+
+ /* Table E4 */
+ private static final double getσε2(String region, boolean isSlab) {
+ // return region.equals(Region.ALASKA) ? 0.1 :
+ // region.equals(Region.ALEUTIANS) ? 0.11 :
+ // region.equals(Region.CASCADIA) ? 0.33 : 0.4; // else GLOBAL
+ switch (region) {
+ case Region.GLOBAL:
+ return isSlab ? 0.22 : 0.4;
+ case Region.ALASKA:
+ return isSlab ? 0.12 : .1;
+ case Region.ALEUTIANS:
+ return isSlab ? 0.18 : .1;
+ case Region.CASCADIA:
+ return isSlab ? 0.16 : 0.33;
+ default:
+ throw new IllegalArgumentException("Region [" + region + "] not supported");
+ }
+ }
+
+ /* Table E4 */
+ private static final double getT1(String region, boolean isSlab) {
+ // return region.equals(Region.ALASKA) ? 1 :
+ // region.equals(Region.ALEUTIANS) ? 1 :
+ // region.equals(Region.CASCADIA) ? 0.2 : 0.2; // else GLOBAL
+ switch (region) {
+ case Region.GLOBAL:
+ return isSlab ? 0.15 : 0.2;
+ case Region.ALASKA:
+ return isSlab ? 0.5 : 1;
+ case Region.ALEUTIANS:
+ return isSlab ? 0.3 : 1;
+ case Region.CASCADIA:
+ return isSlab ? 0.2 : 0.2;
+ default:
+ throw new IllegalArgumentException("Region [" + region + "] not supported");
+ }
+ }
+
+ /* Table E4 */
+ private static final double getT2(String region, boolean isSlab) {
+ switch (region) {
+ case Region.GLOBAL:
+ return isSlab ? 2 : 0.4;
+ case Region.ALASKA:
+ return isSlab ? 1 : 4;
+ case Region.ALEUTIANS:
+ return isSlab ? 0.8 : 4;
+ case Region.CASCADIA:
+ return isSlab ? 3 : 0.5;
+ default:
+ throw new IllegalArgumentException("Region [" + region + "] not supported");
+ }
+ }
+
private static final double getSaturationMagnitude(String region, boolean isSlab) {
// TODO? Read from coeff table?
// Parket et al. (2020) Table 4.1
@@ -207,14 +297,6 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
throw new IllegalArgumentException("Region [" + region + "] not supported");
}
}
-
- // set/get epistemic uncertainty parameters
- // Region,SigEp1,SigEp2,T1,T2
- // Global,0.4,0.4,0.2,0.4
- // Alaska,0.15,0.1,1,4
- // Aleutian,0.15,0.1,1,4
- // Cascadia,0.43,0.33,0.2,0.5
-
}
private final Coefficients coeffs;
@@ -242,7 +324,18 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
double μ = calcMean(coeffs, isSlab(), getBasin(), in.Mw, in.rRup, in.zHyp, pgaRef,
in.vs30, in.z2p5);
- double σ = 0.0;
+ double ϕTotal = getϕTotal(coeffs, in.rRup, in.vs30);
+ double σ = Maths.hypot(coeffs.τ, ϕTotal);
+
+ // System.out.println("calc for T = " + coeffs.imt.toString());
+ // System.out.printf(" Ï•Total = %.6f\n", Ï•Total);
+ // System.out.printf(" σ = %.6f\n", σ);
+
+ double ϕS2S = getϕS2S(coeffs, in.rRup, in.vs30);
+ double ϕSS = getϕSS(coeffs, in.rRup, in.vs30);
+
+ double σε = getσε(coeffs);
+
return DefaultScalarGroundMotion.create(μ, σ);
}
@@ -252,6 +345,14 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
abstract String getBasin();
+ // abstract double σε1();
+ //
+ // abstract double σε2();
+ //
+ // abstract double t1();
+ //
+ // abstract double t2();
+
/* calc median at 760 reference conditions */
private static final double calcMean(
final Coefficients c,
@@ -268,7 +369,7 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
// System.out.printf(" mc = %.2f\n", c.mc);
// System.out.printf(" h = %.6f\n", h);
// System.out.printf(" Fp = %.6f\n", Fp);
- System.out.printf(" Fm(ref) = %.6f\n", Fm);
+ // System.out.printf(" Fm(ref) = %.6f\n", Fm);
// System.out.printf(" Fd = %.6f\n", Fd);
// System.out.printf(" Fb = %.6f (reference calc)\n", 0.0);
// System.out.printf(" mu = %.6f\n", c.c0 + Fp + Fm + Fd);
@@ -299,19 +400,19 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
double Fsb = getSiteBasinTerm(c, basin, vs30, z2p5);
double Fs = Fslin + Fsnl + Fsb;
- System.out.println("calcMean for T = " + c.imt.toString());
- System.out.printf(" Vs30 = %.2f\n", vs30);
- System.out.printf(" h = %.6f\n", h);
- System.out.printf(" Fp = %.6f\n", Fp);
- System.out.printf(" Fm = %.6f\n", Fm);
- System.out.printf(" Fd = %.6f\n", Fd);
- System.out.printf(" PGAref = %.6f\n", pgaRef);
- System.out.printf(" Fslin = %.6e\n", Fslin);
- System.out.printf(" Fsnl = %.6e\n", Fsnl);
- System.out.printf(" Fssb = %.6e\n", Fsb);
- System.out.printf(" Fs = %.6e\n", Fs);
- System.out.printf(" mu = %.6f\n", c.c0 + Fp + Fm + Fd + Fs);
- System.out.printf(" y = %.6f\n", exp(c.c0 + Fp + Fm + Fd + Fs));
+ // System.out.println("calcMean for T = " + c.imt.toString());
+ // System.out.printf(" Vs30 = %.2f\n", vs30);
+ // System.out.printf(" h = %.6f\n", h);
+ // System.out.printf(" Fp = %.6f\n", Fp);
+ // System.out.printf(" Fm = %.6f\n", Fm);
+ // System.out.printf(" Fd = %.6f\n", Fd);
+ // System.out.printf(" PGAref = %.6f\n", pgaRef);
+ // System.out.printf(" Fslin = %.6e\n", Fslin);
+ // System.out.printf(" Fsnl = %.6e\n", Fsnl);
+ // System.out.printf(" Fssb = %.6e\n", Fsb);
+ // System.out.printf(" Fs = %.6e\n", Fs);
+ // System.out.printf(" mu = %.6f\n", c.c0 + Fp + Fm + Fd + Fs);
+ // System.out.printf(" y = %.6f\n", exp(c.c0 + Fp + Fm + Fd + Fs));
return c.c0 + Fp + Fm + Fd + Fs;
}
@@ -438,6 +539,141 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
return Fb;
}
+ /* Eqs. 6.3, 6.4, 6.5 */
+ private static final double getϕTotal(final Coefficients c, final double rRup,
+ final double vs30) {
+
+ /* Eq. 6.5 */
+ double Δvar;
+ double rPrime = max(R1, min(R2, rRup));
+ if (vs30 <= V1) {
+ Δvar = c.ϕ2v * (log(R2 / rPrime) / log(R2 / R1));
+ } else if (vs30 >= V2) {
+ Δvar = 0;
+ } else {
+ Δvar = c.ϕ2v * (log(V2 / vs30) / log(V2 / V1)) * (log(R2 / rPrime) / log(R2 / R1));
+ }
+
+ /* Eq. 6.4 */
+ double Ï•2;
+ if (rRup <= R1) {
+ Ï•2 = c.Ï•21;
+ } else if (rRup >= R2) {
+ Ï•2 = c.Ï•22;
+ } else {
+ Ï•2 = (c.Ï•22 - c.Ï•21) / log(R2 / R1) * log(rRup / R1) + c.Ï•21;
+ }
+
+ /* Eq. 6.3 */
+ double ϕTotal = sqrt(Δvar + ϕ2);
+
+ // System.out.println("getϕTotal for T = " + c.imt.toString());
+ // System.out.printf(" rRup = %.6f\n",rRup);
+ // System.out.printf(" vs30 = %.6f\n",vs30);
+ // System.out.printf(" rPrime = %.6f\n",rPrime);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.Ï•2v = %.6f\n",c.Ï•2v);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.Ï•21 = %.6f\n",c.Ï•21);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.Ï•22 = %.6f\n",c.Ï•22);
+ // System.out.printf(" Δvar = %.6f\n",Δvar);
+ // System.out.printf(" Ï•2 = %.6f\n",Ï•2);
+ // System.out.printf(" Ï•Total = %.6f\n",Ï•Total);
+
+ return Ï•Total;
+ }
+
+ /* Eqs. 6.6, 6.7 */
+ private static final double getϕS2S(final Coefficients c, final double rRup, final double vs30) {
+
+ /* Eq. 6.7 */
+ double rPrime = max(R3, min(R4, rRup));
+ double ΔvarS2S;
+ if (vs30 <= V3) {
+ ΔvarS2S = c.a1 * log(V3 / c.vm) * log(R4 / rPrime) / log(R4 / R3);
+ } else if (vs30 < c.vm) {
+ ΔvarS2S = c.a1 * log(vs30 / c.vm) * log(R4 / rPrime) / log(R4 / R3);
+ } else if (vs30 < V4) {
+ ΔvarS2S = c.a1 * log(vs30 / c.vm);
+ } else { // vs30 >= V4
+ ΔvarS2S = c.a1 * log(V4 / c.vm);
+ }
+
+ double ϕS2S = sqrt(c.ϕ2s2s0 + ΔvarS2S);
+
+ // System.out.println("getϕS2S for T = " + c.imt.toString());
+ // System.out.printf(" rRup = %.6f\n",rRup);
+ // System.out.printf(" vs30 = %.6f\n",vs30);
+ // System.out.printf(" rPrime = %.6f\n",rPrime);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.a1 = %.6f\n",c.a1);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.vm = %.6f\n",c.vm);
+ // System.out.printf(" ΔvarS2S = %.6f\n",ΔvarS2S);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.Ï•2s2s0 = %.6f\n",c.Ï•2s2s0);
+ // System.out.printf(" Ï•S2S = %.6f\n",Ï•S2S);
+
+ return Ï•S2S;
+ }
+
+ /* Eqs. 6.8, 6.9, 6.10 */
+ private double getϕSS(Coefficients c, double rRup, double vs30) {
+ /* Eq. 6.10 */
+ double rPrime = max(R3, min(R4, rRup));
+ double ΔvarSS;
+ if (vs30 <= V3) {
+ ΔvarSS = c.a2 * log(V3 / c.vm) * log(R4 / rPrime) / log(R4 / R3);
+ } else if (vs30 < c.vm) {
+ ΔvarSS = c.a2 * log(vs30 / c.vm) * log(R4 / rPrime) / log(R4 / R3);
+ } else if (vs30 < V4) {
+ ΔvarSS = c.a2 * log(vs30 / c.vm);
+ } else { // vs30 >= V4
+ ΔvarSS = c.a2 * log(V4 / c.vm);
+ }
+
+ /* Eq. 6.9 */
+ double Ï•SS2rRup;
+ if (rRup <= R5) {
+ Ï•SS2rRup = c.Ï•2ss1;
+ } else if (rRup < R6) {
+ Ï•SS2rRup = (c.Ï•2ss2 - c.Ï•2ss1) / log(R6 / R5) * log(rRup / R5) + c.Ï•2ss1;
+ } else { // rRup >= R6
+ Ï•SS2rRup = c.Ï•2ss2;
+ }
+
+ double ϕSS = sqrt(ϕSS2rRup + ΔvarSS);
+
+ // System.out.println("getϕSS for T = " + c.imt.toString());
+ // System.out.printf(" rRup = %.6f\n",rRup);
+ // System.out.printf(" vs30 = %.6f\n",vs30);
+ // System.out.printf(" rPrime = %.6f\n",rPrime);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.a2 = %.6f\n",c.a1);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.vm = %.6f\n",c.vm);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.Ï•2ss1 = %.6f\n",c.Ï•2ss1);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.Ï•2ss2 = %.6f\n",c.Ï•2ss2);
+ // System.out.printf(" ΔvarSS = %.6f\n",ΔvarSS);
+ // System.out.printf(" Ï•SS2rRup = %.6f\n",Ï•SS2rRup);
+ // System.out.printf(" Ï•S2S = %.6f\n",Ï•SS);
+
+ return Ï•SS;
+ }
+
+ /* Eq. 8.2 */
+ private double getσε(Coefficients c) {
+ double σε;
+ if (c.imt == Imt.PGA || c.imt == Imt.PGV || c.imt.period() < c.t1) {
+ σε = c.σε1;
+ } else if (c.imt.period() < c.t2) {
+ σε = c.σε1 - (c.σε1 - c.σε2) * log(c.imt.period() / c.t1) / log(c.t2 / c.t1);
+ } else { // T > T2
+ σε = c.σε2;
+ }
+ // System.out.println("getσε for T = " + c.imt.toString());
+ // System.out.printf(" T1 = %.6f\n",c.t1);
+ // System.out.printf(" T2 = %.6f\n",c.t2);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.σε1 = %.6f\n",c.σε1);
+ // System.out.printf(" c.σε2 = %.6f\n",c.σε2);
+ // System.out.printf(" σε = %.6f\n",σε);
+
+ return σε;
+ }
+
/*
* Global interface model
*/
@@ -462,6 +698,27 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
String getBasin() {
return Basin.NONE;
}
+
+ // @Override
+ // double σε1() {
+ // return 0;
+ // }
+ //
+ // @Override
+ // double σε2() {
+ // return 0;
+ // }
+ //
+ // @Override
+ // double t1() {
+ // return 0;
+ // }
+ //
+ // @Override
+ // double t2() {
+ // return 0;
+ // }
+
}
/*
@@ -488,6 +745,26 @@ public abstract class ParkerEtAl_2020 implements GroundMotionModel {
String getBasin() {
return Basin.NONE;
}
+
+ // @Override
+ // double σε1() {
+ // return 0;
+ // }
+ //
+ // @Override
+ // double σε2() {
+ // return 0;
+ // }
+ //
+ // @Override
+ // double t1() {
+ // return 0;
+ // }
+ //
+ // @Override
+ // double t2() {
+ // return 0;
+ // }
}
/*
diff --git a/src/test/java/gov/usgs/earthquake/nshmp/gmm/PSHAB20.java b/src/test/java/gov/usgs/earthquake/nshmp/gmm/PSHAB20.java
index 7b20051b..5d2f86bc 100644
--- a/src/test/java/gov/usgs/earthquake/nshmp/gmm/PSHAB20.java
+++ b/src/test/java/gov/usgs/earthquake/nshmp/gmm/PSHAB20.java
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
package gov.usgs.earthquake.nshmp.gmm;
import static gov.usgs.earthquake.nshmp.gmm.Gmm.PSHAB20_INTERFACE;
+import static gov.usgs.earthquake.nshmp.gmm.Gmm.PSHAB20_SLAB;
import static gov.usgs.earthquake.nshmp.gmm.Imt.PGA;
import java.io.IOException;
@@ -33,7 +34,7 @@ class PSHAB20 implements ArgumentsProvider {
}
/* Result generation sets */
- private static Set<Gmm> gmms = EnumSet.of(PSHAB20_INTERFACE);
+ private static Set<Gmm> gmms = EnumSet.of(PSHAB20_INTERFACE, PSHAB20_SLAB);
private static Set<Imt> imts = EnumSet.of(PGA);// PSHAB20_INTERFACE.supportedIMTs();
public static void main(String[] args) throws IOException {
diff --git a/src/test/resources/gmm/PSHAB20_results.csv b/src/test/resources/gmm/PSHAB20_results.csv
index 90c40b89..3829c8b2 100644
--- a/src/test/resources/gmm/PSHAB20_results.csv
+++ b/src/test/resources/gmm/PSHAB20_results.csv
@@ -1,23 +1,46 @@
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P01,2.08965604936e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P02,2.12376645069e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P03,2.24575034172e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P05,2.58276475982e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P075,2.96364966819e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P1,3.25369383278e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P15,3.55651022874e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P2,3.64296484198e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P25,3.69487943052e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P3,3.71144622014e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P4,3.46117876964e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P5,3.11738351662e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P75,2.56085017514e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA1P0,2.06123859520e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA1P5,1.45673139070e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA2P0,1.08967064936e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA3P0,6.26946254992e-03,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA4P0,4.36498415871e-03,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA5P0,3.44133448941e-03,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA7P5,1.95537566087e-03,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA10P0,1.25157789513e-03,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-PGA,2.02870001012e-02,0.0
-0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-PGV,1.95216532021e+00,0.0
+0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P01,2.08965604936e-02,7.89668284788e-01
+0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P02,2.12376645069e-02,7.95816561778e-01
+0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P03,2.24575034172e-02,8.14248119433e-01
+0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P05,2.58276475982e-02,8.67054784890e-01
+0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P075,2.96364966819e-02,8.99944442730e-01
+0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P1,3.25369383278e-02,8.89705569276e-01
+0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P15,3.55651022874e-02,8.46817571854e-01
+0-PSHAB20_INTERFACE-SA0P2,3.64296484198e-02,8.26438745462e-01
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--
GitLab